India and China are the biggest rivals in the world But there is a master plan that can make both the countries friends Or at least can try and that is BRICS. BRICS means a organization that brings the top non-western countries together. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Today, rumours are that BRICS wants to make a currency that will end the dollar dominance Is this the beginning of de-dollarization? Can this be the reason India and China become friends? And how does it matter to us?
Let’s find out …
What is BRICS?
BRICS started after the 2008 financial crisis when Brazil, Russia, China, and India’s leaders met for the first time in Russia. South Africa became a part of this group in 2010. If you see, BRICS is a group of only 5 countries but it has a very big impact In total, the world’s 1/4th land and 42% population is included in BRICS. And among these 5 countries, one or the other country is part of the world’s 17% trade. BRICS is so important that 23 countries have applied to become a part of it. Including countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE.
Today, there is only one superpower in the world and that is America. Finance, technology, military. If you look at it from all 3 angles there is no one country in the world that can compete with America alone. Not even China. So if not one nation, maybe a group of nations can challenge USA. BRICS is such a group that wants to bring the fastest growing economies of the world together.
This year, the members and leaders of BRICS countries are going to meet in South Africa. But
- what does it mean to come together?
- Is it enough to just have meetings?
- is it necessary to have some other objective?
In the early days, BRICS nations had no particular goal. But today, geopolitics is taking shape in such a way that BRICS’s objective is getting clear and that is the end of the power of the West.
BRICS economic master plan.
The Russian-Ukraine war has reminded the whole world of one thing that the US dollar is not just a currency but it is a weapon. As soon as Russia attacked Ukraine, America imposed various sanctions on Russia. They removed Russia from the SWIFT international money transfer system. They froze their $300 billion reserves. Today, 80% of the world’s trade is in the US dollar. A country’s central bank keeps some stable foreign currency reserves which are called Forex reserves. Out of which, 59% of the reserves are in US dollars and the US Fed controls these dollars. That is not only in America, but also outside America how can each dollar be used, is fully controlled by America.
The Chinese economy is completely dependent on trade. One-fifth of China’s total GDP comes from its exports. Just like Russia has an interest in Ukraine, similarly China is interested in Taiwan. China wants to make Taiwan officially a part of its mainland. That means, today or tomorrow, China will have to attack Taiwan. And if this happens, then America will impose sanctions on China as well. This is the only fear that is stopping China from attacking Taiwan. That means, China will not be able to trade with America and other major countries. China is already preparing for this from 2009. Because today, 6% of the world trade is done in Chinese yuan.
This year, Alexander Babakov of Russia said that Russia is focusing on making a new global currency. The easiest way to understand China’s economic master plan is to put all the recent events on a timeline.
What have we seen so far?
In 2009, BRICS started and that too after the 2008 financial crisis, after that since 2014, every year BRICS countries have been meeting each other after the pandemic in 2020 many countries had to go through an economic crisis. Many of them were refused help by IMF. In March 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine and the West imposed sanctions on them. But the rest of the world did not stop trading with Russia. De-dollarization started from December 2022. In this year, 2023 a major bank in America, Silicon Valley Bank, collapsed. And like 2008 a similar situation was created. The same situation that gave birth to BRICS. And since April 2023 all the countries of BRICS have been increasing their gold reserves. India bought 3 tons, Russia bought 31 tons, and China bought 102 tons of new gold. All these signals indicate that BRICS is preparing to launch its new currency. And that too a currency that is backed by gold.
To make a new currency successful, 3 things are important. Expansion, acceptance, and trust. Expansion, when more countries will be a part of BRICS. Acceptance, when all countries will be able to make decisions and trust, when the value of that currency will be linked to gold and all these three directions work is being carried out.
Idea of the new currency
Understanding the possibility and process of BRICS currency will be easier after understanding the process of another currency. This is Euro, which is the central currency of Europe. Which is used in 20 countries of the EU. Along with that, these non-EU countries also use Euro. The point is that in 1979, when EMS(European Monetary System) was launched. The main purpose of EMS was to monitor at what rate different European currencies will be exchanged which is called ERM(Exchange Rate Mechanism).
The idea of a single currency came in 1987 because of France and West Germany. West Germany had deutsche mark and France had franc as currencies. But after a point deutsche mark as a currency started becoming very strong. Germany’s economy runs on manufacturing and by exporting their heavy machines and cars, they run the country. If the currency becomes very strong, then it will be difficult for factory owners to make things in Germany. Because, laborers will have to be paid more salaries. If the prices are high, the demand will decrease and in the long run the industry will be ruined.
On the other hand, France’s economy was not growing as fast as Germany. But because of ERM, their currencies were tied to each other. It was an economic disaster that was waiting like a ticking time bomb. To prevent this, a treaty was signed in the countries of the European Union which is called the Maastricht Treaty.
This treaty was signed in 1991 and Euro was launched in 1999. But how?
This was not an overnight decision like demonetization. It took 10 years to prepare even after the launch, for 3 years, Euro was an invisible currency that is not in the hands of people, It was only being used in accounting. Today, there are 11 locations in Europe where Euro is printed, 6 billion notes are printed every year. Before Euro came, if a businessman had to go to different countries in Europe to do business, he had to carry 10 different wallets. In every wallet, a currency of a different country and remember, This is not the era of the internet Where we quickly open our phones and check the currency rates.
For example, in Italian lira, there were even 5 lakh notes and the French franc would only print a 500 note at the max. In the early times of Euro, it was very complicated to calculate all these transactions mentally. For Europe, Euro was a very good idea because…
- The trade ties in Europe were very good.
- The same currency brought economic stability.
- New and neutral institutions like the European Bank were created which increased political stability.
In short, in the story of Euro, we understood that even to make a currency like Euro it took a lot of time. Because, it is not easy to create a new currency. Now, it is important for BRICS to think that can we use the same model? Can we create our own currency and start trade in this new currency?
Friendship between India and China
Jim O’Neill is an economist who published a paper in 2001. Where he for the first time used the acronym BRIC. He says that creating a common currency is an embarrassing idea. Because, until India and China don’t become friends, until then a common currency is impossible. And if you look at the recent history, you will understand why. In 2020, in the Galwan Valley, there were clashes between the forces of India and China in which 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives. After this moment, the relations between India and China got worse. We sent 68,000 troops to Ladakh, We banned 300 Chinese apps and started tax raids on Chinese companies. 19 times, the armed forces of both the countries met for military-level talks but the armed forces of both sides are manned at the border. China for the last 10 months has not sent any ambassador to India.
Today, Western countries feel comfortable seeing the rivalry between China and India. Because, the concept of divide and rule has not yet gone out of fashion. India and China are quite different ideologically. We are a democracy and China is a dictatorship. India has diversity and China has uniformity. But, now if China wants to challenge America and Russia to control its economy wants to make an alternative to the dollar, then India and China will have to come on the same page. Because, ultimately, these two countries are the biggest players of BRICS. Western media calls them Asian giants. China and India’s friendship can prove beneficial to all the countries of BRICS and efforts are also made in the right direction. G-20 is happening in India and it is possible that Chinese President Xi Jinping come to India. When Xi Jinping came to India in 2017, he started military de-escalation to improve relations before that. Similarly, there’s a possibility even now Foreign ministries of both the countries are talking about it. BRICS’ economic master plan will be successful only when we are ready to cooperate economically and politically.
Conclusion
we have to realize that the Euro which is a multinational currency, took 10 years of preparation. After the Euro was launched in 1999, it was an invisible currency for 3 years. It was not in the hands of the common people, It was used only for some specific purposes and that too in those countries which are quite similar ideologically and quite close geographically. BRICS currency is an interesting idea and quite necessary too. That in the future is sure to be executed to break the Western monopoly. But before that, cooperation needs to increase in these 5 core countries.
Because we are moving towards a multipolar future, A future where no one country will be a superpower but there will be many great powers which will cooperate with each other in trade, science, and culture.
